In May 2026, a federal indictment pulled back the curtain on an alleged global shipping container cartel. Controlling roughly 95% of the market, executives installed 87 factory cameras and signed a written contract called the “Moon Gazing Fund” to force compliance. But the economics of cartel formation dictate that the seeds of failure are baked into the architecture from day one.
We break down the industrial organization theory behind the competitive fringe, the engineering of trust under George Stigler’s framework, and why competition leniency programs inadvertently act as an “entry subsidy” for late-joining defectors.
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